Let's not get ahead of ourselves...but...DAMN!

First, let me say that I am proud of the Mrs. She made a point of getting out and voting in the MA special election yesterday. Last night Kade asked her who she voted for and she unabashidly stated who she voted for....wonderful for the kiddos to see! (in fact, the Mrs. and I decided that we will start taking the kiddos to the polls...so they understand the process and all that which it represents).

To be honest, I NEVER would have thought that our move to MA would have resulted in any chance to actually cast a vote that materially mattered - but thanks to "X" I was pleasantly surprised!! (Mad-Lib time ... you fill in the "X")

Backing up for a minute...people wonder (ok - mainly the Mrs. wonders) why I love politics so much. Mainly, I love democracy...and politics is the engine of democracy. I love the fact that "the poeple" really are the boss at the end of the day (despite what the power-drunk politicians in DC think - yes BOTH parties)! So it was tremendously exciting to see so many people in MA discussing the canidates and the issues.

What I want to talk about --> a simple message to the Republican party. Don't misread the mandate. ObamaCo greatly misread 2008. They assumed that thier sweeping victory meant that they had the correct agenda. Wrong. All it meant was that people were not happy with what Bush/Cheny were doing (people forget there was a Democrat Congress at the time...it is just easier to blame Bush). Many conservatives voted for Obama...do you think that really meant they subscribed to something that bordered on socialism? Hardly. So Repubs...don't get all hyped up that this means your platform is solid. It means that Scott Brown's message of the moment was right-on the mark.

• Do not spend money "we" do not possess.
• Cut taxes to create jobs.
• Kill the runaway health-care reform bill (that doesn't mean "no reform at all"...just not "reform like this").
• Giving constitutional rights to terrorists is a bad idea.
• Listen to the people.

Please, please don't embarass us by over-reading this vote and doing something stupid. Just be happy that you are less wrong than ObamaCo and work towards real compromise for the country!

BUT...dear ObamaCo. Please do not UNDER-READ this vote. It does mean that your agenda sucks. We do not like you spending our children's money at breathtaking speed. We do not like your healthcare monstrocity...it is too focused on the uninsured. We would like you to focus more on jobs. We do not want higher taxes {like you promised} (even the veiled kind - like pass-through taxes from corporations). Don't protect terrorists - they are not our friends. You know...stuff like that.

Since I am a junkie...and completely unable to restrain myself when it comes to data...here are the lenses through which I am looking: The picture on the left is Obama/McCain 2008 and the picture on the right is Coakley/Brown 2010. You may notice some patterns. Obviously Boston/Lowell/Worcester continue to be blue...they have the most to gain. But Cape Cod (home of the Kenedy's)? Both South and North shore? This clearly demonstrates that the current entitlement agenda at the national level is resonating with a smaller and smaller base. You may be interested in why Western Massachusettes (sic) is so blue. I had to ask a few people myself. Apparently it has something to do with what I will call "granola-gravity theory" (something which returns 0 hits in Google...I should trademark that...) ...which is drawing hippies to the Berkshires. But I am not expert on this topic...

Anyway, I have already seen the liberal media starting to paint a predictable picture..."Republicans voted and Democrats sat out --> that was the reason for the loss". Hmm...that is really interesting seeing as how Republicans represent ~11% of the population per the Boston Globs own admission (I am betting that will not be their final answer - just look at the scale on the bottom of the chart for heaven's sake). I seem to recall that the same media pre-election day was saying that "higher turnout favored Coakley" because the state is largely Democrat (shock). Ok - so how many people showed up to vote? About 2.2M according to state records. And how about in 2008 (the biggest turnout ever)? 3M. That's right...about 54% voted in this special election vs 73% in 2008. I would not call thems small potatoes. So the Glob expects us to believe that higher turnout of 11% of 2.2M (or 242K) means victory in MA!! If this were the case, then shouldn't all elections in MA be competative? DUNCES! Clearly the Boston Globs analysis (while it may be factually correct) is a little off target in answering the question of "what happened to my seat?". So let me show you what I see...when I plot voter turnout vs. "% for Brown" town by town...there is a VERY weak correlation (note the R^2 of only 0.03!!). That means turnout was basically irrelevant. DANGER-DANGER Boston Glob...your thesis is flawed. Tie this in with the delta in "support for Obama" vs the "support for Coakley" and you start to see something more telling. I compiled a town by town comparison of the delta in support for the democrat canidate (2010 vs. 2008). You already know the answer wrt the overall average. Obama won with 62% and Coakly only took home 47%...a net loss of 15 percentage points across the board. Ok...that is distressing but the really bad news comes in the town by town breakout. Not ONE single town in MA gave Coakly a higher % than Obama got in '08. Even in the most liberal of liberal places like Cambridge/Provincetown/Amherst, with their backs against the wall (remeber this was the 41st vote after all), saw D supprot errosion...and the more independant towns had striking movement, upwards of 30% cross-over.

So what does this mean...ObamaCo really pissed off a huge chunk of people...it was not just Martha. Martha's terrible campaign is not enough to turn off people in democrat stronholds in a democrat state. After all, they would follow any D anwhere. This is reinforced by the Ramnussen data:

In the end, Brown pulled off the upset in large part because he won
unaffiliated voters by a 73% to 25% margin. The senator-elect also picked up 23%
of the vote from Democrats.

Coakley also barely carried a usually reliable Democratic constituency.
Union workers went for her by just six points, 52% to 46%.

Fifty-six percent (56%) of voters in the state say health care was the most
important factor in their voting decision.

Twenty-five percent (25%) of Massachusetts voters say the economy was most
important.

So yes ObamaCo. your agenda stinks. Loud and clear. If I were your advisor...I would advise you to get out in front of this and deep-6 the current health care plan at the State of the Union. Be seen as leading us ALL away from this disaster which you can claim "Congress has created". You will look stronger...NOT weaker. I doubt your advisors are telling you this and that is too bad for the country.

And I re-iterate my warning to the Repubs: You better stay out of the cool-aid and realize that this is a great opportunity to get a seat at the table and contribute. It is not validation that you should OWN the table.

And if you made it all the way to the bottom...let me know :-)